Houston Real Estate Report: Harvey’s Impact On Houston’s Top Neighborhoods

Hurricane Harvey’s Impact
On Houston Real Estate Market
Best And Worst Houston Neighborhoods Two Months After Harvey

Two months after Hurricane Harvey, see which Houston neighborhoods are most and least affected by the Hurricane.

It’s been two months since Hurricane Harvey ravaged the Houston area (and the Houston Astros are now World Series Champions!!!)

As part of our Houston Hurricane Flooding Series (see the One Month Hurricane Harvey Lookback and the Houston Condos and Neighborhoods That Did Not Flood) we have an updated analysis. Winners and losers have started to emerge.

 

Our Analysis

For each of Houston’s Top 52 Neighborhoods, we analyzed real estate trends for:

  • Sept & Oct 2017 (the two months post-Harvey) compared with both:
    • January – August 2017 (“Early 2017.”)
    • Sept & Oct 2016 (“Prior Period.”)
  • Median home price changes.
  • Average monthly sales volume changes.
  • See the bottom of this article for our full methodology.

Executive Summary

The following are our major findings:

  • The overall Houston market is performing well.
  • Post-Harvey, for all close in Houston neighborhoods, for all property types:
    • Median home prices are up 4% from Sept & Oct 2016 and consistent with Jan-Aug 2017.
    • Sales volumes are down 6% from Sept & Oct 2016 (most of this dip coming in early Sep).
  • Houston Condos are the big winners:
    • Median condo prices rose 8% in Sep & Oct when compared to early 2017, and 22% when compared to Sep & Oct 2016.
    • Condo sales volumes also rose 6% compared to early 2017, and 34% compared to Sep & Oct 2016.
  • The rental market spiked for approximately 30 days after Harvey, but has since returned to early 2017 levels.
  • 11 neighborhoods experienced a major decrease in the number of homes sold, but a major increase in median home prices. Details below along with our hypothesis on why this occurred.
  • The majority of the close in Houston neighborhoods that experienced flooding were in the known flood plains and/or many homes in the area had experienced prior flooding. Caveat emptor.

GET THE FREE HOUSTON INVESTING TRENDS REPORT IN PDF

Get the full Houston Investing Trends Report in an easy-to-read Adobe Acrobat format. Save to your desktop or read on your mobile.

Table Of Contents

ENTIRE CLOSE IN HOUSTON REAL ESTATE MARKET*

MEDIAN HOME PRICESALES VOLUME
Property TypePost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016Sept & Oct 2017 Median PricePost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016
All Properties0%4%$420,000-14%-6%
Houston Condos8%22%$342,0006%34%
Houston Townhomes3%2%$324,000-18%-12%
Houston Single Family Homes-3%0%$460,000-14%-7%

Notable Updates:

  • Total sales volume for all property types in Sep & Oct 2017 dropped compared with both the average sales volume for Early 2017 and the Prior Period (as expected).
  • Most of this decline occurred in the first few weeks of September, when both buyers and sellers paused from the market.
  • The noticeable “winners” from Hurricane Harvey were the Houston condos that did not flood. The median condo price and the number of condo transactions jumped – both when comparing to Early 2017 and the Prior Period.
  • In our opinion, based on what we were seeing in the market, we believe this increase in condo sales came from two segments:
    • New buyers moving to Houston who were inundated with images of flooded homes. Many chose to be in a protected building instead of a single family home.
    • People who flooded (or came close to flooding) did not want to take the risk of this happening again, and they chose to live in a condo building away from the bayous / flooded areas.

AREAS THAT BENEFITED, POST HARVEY

A handful of neighborhoods experienced meaningful price and/or sales volume increases since Harvey:

MEDIAN HOME PRICESALES VOLUME
NeighborhoodPost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016Sept & Oct 2017 Median PricePost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016
Royal Oaks20%30%$900,00022%7%
Washington East / Sabine13%5%$449,0006%0%
Champions Area9%0%$249,9009%1%
Heights / Greater Heights9%0%$499,900-1%0%
Katy – Old Towne6%22%$304,5690%11%
Friendswood4%19%$284,9503%7%

Notable Updates:

  • Based on our outreach to over 250 clients, building managers, and HOA community leaders throughout the city for our Houston Neighborhoods That Did Not Flood research project, we also have anecdotal data that most of the subdivisions within these neighborhoods fared very well during the storm.

AREAS WITH FEWER SALES BUT INCREASED PRICES

11 neighborhoods experienced a material drop in sales volumes, but a notable increase in median home sale prices.

MEDIAN HOME PRICESALES VOLUME
NeighborhoodPost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016Sept & Oct 2017 Median PricePost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016
Downtown*10%14%$284,900-59%-73%
Knollwood / Woodside3%7%$479,450-44%-67%
Highland Village / Midlane5%18%$915,000-17%-58%
Royden / Afton Oaks17%37%$959,500-11%-56%
Cottage Grove5%5%$419,950-34%-49%
Galleria25%7%$749,900-28%-43%
Oak Forest6%9%$369,900-28%-30%
Montrose4%5%$675,000-32%-28%
East Downtown / EaDo*3%10%$319,450-28%-11%
Rice / Museum District*15%6%$754,950-16%-10%
River Oaks20%47%$2,392,500-25%0%

Notable Updates:

  • This was the most fascinating data to our team. Our speculation for why this occurred is below. Contact me to talk about specific neighborhoods or your home for details.
  • Based on our anecdotal data and what we’re seeing in the market, we believe that most people who experienced flooding did not change regions of the city (e.g. Flood victims in Memorial, on average, did not relocate to the “dry areas” of the Inner Loop. Instead they stayed in the same region with their schools, churches, dry cleaners and friend community).
  • This implies that many of the biggest “winners” were neighborhoods that had partial flooding or were in proximity to flooding. The homes, subdivisions and streets that did not flood experienced material benefits (details & specifics below).
  • Here’s an example of what we saw in the Downtown Houston market:
    • Many of the condo in the northern part of downtown flooded.
    • Several notable buildings were without power for a while and without elevators for more than three weeks. Units in those buildings experienced a huge drop in showings (Do you really want to see a condo if you can’t use the building’s elevator to get there?).
    • However, all of the sales that occurred downtown since Harvey have been isolated to two buildings (both on the Houston condos that did not flood list).
  • In each of the neighborhoods above, we have anecdotal data of both streets and homes that did very well and streets and homes that did not.

AREAS MATERIALLY IMPACTED, POST HARVEY

Several neighborhoods experienced a material change in their real estate market during Sept & Oct 2017 as compared to both Jan – Aug 2017 and Sept & Oct 2016 period. We highlighted ones below that had material reductions to either median home prices or sales volume (or both).

MEDIAN HOME PRICESALES VOLUME
NeighborhoodPost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan – Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016Sept & Oct 2017 Median PricePost Harvey Change (Sept & Oct vs Jan-Aug 2017)Sept & Oct 2017 vs Sept & Oct 2016
Braeswood Place*-27%-39%$535,50035%13%
Bellaire-18%-22%$824,000-1%35%
Memorial Villages-17%-16%$1,299,500-8%-3%
Meyerland-14%-17%$364,450-4%21%
Briargrove-8%-14%$769,0007%57%
Eldridge North-6%-8%$212,450-5%-9%
Memorial West*-5%3%$539,700-16%-16%
Energy Corridor-4%9%$355,750-31%-12%
Fall Creek-3%-4%$310,439-27%-18%
West University-5%4%$1,225,000-23%-16%
Briargrove Park / Walnutbend-3%-2%$439,450-19%37%

Notable Updates:

  • Within West University, Bellaire, Briargrove Park and Memorial Villages there are subdivisions that experienced the same benefit as the section above (certain streets benefited – and homes that did not flood appreciated in value). However, the overall stats for the geo market area are presented above to be comparable with the rest of the study.
  • Nearly all areas that experienced the worst decline in median sales prices have:
    • A massive increase in the number of “Lot Value Only” and “Lots” listings & sales as compared with both periods from early 2017 and Sept & Oct 2016.
    • Have material sections of the community that are located in the known and disclosed 100 or 500 year floodplains.
    • A surprisingly large number of properties that have flooded multiple times in the past 5-15 years (e.g. Tax Day Floods, Memorial Day Floods, Tropical Storm Allison). Caveat emptor.

.

Methodology:

  • We analyzed Houston’s Top 52 Neighborhoods from https://www.houstonproperties.com/houston-neighborhoods/salary-needed-to-buy-home
  • All properties compared are just single family homes unless the neighborhood has an asterisk (*). Neighborhoods with an asterisk include single family homes, townhomes and condos, except for Downtown Houston which only compares condo sales.
  • “Post Harvey” data is referred to as the time period between September 1 – October 31, 2017.
  • “Early / Earlier 2017” data is referred to as the time period between January 1 – August 31, 2017.
  • “Prior Year” data is referred to as the time period between September 1 – October 31, 2016.
  • All data is from the Houston Multiple Listing Service.
  • Close in Houston refers to HAR MLS areas 4,9,16,17,22,23 & 24.
  • To compare average sales volumes we “monthalized” the data (e.g. took the total sales for Sept & Oct 2017 and divided the number by 2; sales data for Jan – Aug 2017 was divided by 8).

Get More Details

Paige Martin

Our Recent Awards

Why We’re Different

  • #1 Keller Williams Realtor in Houston
  • #1 Keller Williams Realtor in Texas
  • #9 Keller Williams Realtor in the U.S.
  • "One of Houston's Top 25 Realtors," Houston
    Business Journal
  • "One of America's Best Realtors," RealTrends.com / WSJ
  • Over $250 Million in Houston residential home sales
  • We know this market, and this property.
  • We're candid.
  • We'll tell you the "bad' and the "ugly" about any property we show you.
  • Most often, we talk our clients into NOT BUYING.
- Gretchen & Brad Richter- Gretchen & Brad Richter
“We relocated to Texas from out of state 3 years ago, and Paige’s intimate knowledge of Houston neighborhoods, valuations, trends, and pitfalls was simply unmatched. We would never have been able to find our perfect home without her. She was calm and focused when everything seemed most challenging — a true professional and advocate who has become a dear friend. We are grateful to have met her!

Read More

- Peter McGillivray & Jillian Jopling- Peter McGillivray & Jillian Jopling
“Paige demonstrated all qualities you want in a realtor – knowledgeable, attentive, responsive, patient. She put us into our first dream home, and due to that experience, we’ve returned to her time and again for our other real estate needs. You will quickly realize after working with Paige that while she focuses on completing your deal, her endgame is to ensure her clients’ needs are preserved and satisfied.

Read More

- Gail & Ian Mackey- Gail & Ian Mackey
“As first time buyers in the US, we are delighted to have worked with Paige. She is a delight to work with, and I would recommend anyone to enlist her help if you’re looking to either buy or sell a property.

Read More

- Dr. Jen Shroff- Dr. Jen Shroff
“Paige is simply the best. She was patient with us throughout the process and took time to answer all of our questions! She knows so much about the housing market so we felt very confident that we were in great hands!

Read More

- Travis LeConey- Travis LeConey
“Paige has helped my wife and I twice now. I couldn’t think of a better person to have in your corner when buying or selling! She guided us through the process, and made it seem so easy that selling/buying was fun! Paige is a great person, very responsive, and great at what she does. I recommend Paige to all my friends and co-workers. If you are buying or selling in the area Paige covers, give her a call. You won’t regret it!

Read More

- Xavier Refunjol- Xavier Refunjol
“Paige is dedicated, thorough and caring to where you feel you’re their only client. Their best asset is their honesty, based on experience and data. We had a great time buying our first home largely because of them. We would not hesitate to recommend them to anyone.

Read More

- Taylor Lamb- Taylor Lamb
“Paige was wonderful to work with. She was thorough, knowledgeable and patient. I would highly recommend Paige to anyone looking to buy or sell a home.”

Read More

- Jeremy & Lynn Greene- Jeremy & Lynn Greene
“Paige Martin is the best Realtor. She is highly experienced and very knowledgeable. She made our buying experience an enjoyable one, not only for us, but for our daughter, son-in-law and several of our friends. We have bought and sold many houses, and Paige has been the best realtor we have ever worked with. We highly recommend her.

Read More

- Dr. Forrest Roth, MD- Dr. Forrest Roth, MD
“Paige is the best of the best when it comes to real estate! She has bought & sold many properties for us & we couldn't recommend her more highly!

Read More

- Tina Spiller, Chevron- Tina Spiller, Chevron
“I really enjoyed working with Paige on the sale of my townhome. The HAR listing was perfect and went up quickly and the sale was closed within 30 days. I definitely recommend Paige for any real estate transaction.

Read More

Read 100+ Testimonials: LinkedIn for the Best Houston Realtor

What We Can Do For You

CANDID ADVICE

Our promise is to always give you the most candid advice on any property, to help you make the best decision for your family.

EXPERTISE

Having sold over $250M of Houston homes, we've seen the good, bad & ugly and can help you avoid problems.

GREAT DATA

We built a proprietary data analytics package to help give you the best information on any neighborhood, building or home.

NETWORK OF EXPERTS

Built over fifteen years, our network of experts can help you through each step of the process plus help making living in your new home more enjoyable.

Latest Houston Real Estate Stories

Read more Houston real estate updates

Back to Top